We acknowledge that there is always a high degree of uncertainty in such estimates and variability in ranges of estimates for this financing gap . For example , we note that more recent estimates around climate scenarios suggest higher financing needs or wider gaps . Also , other sources such as taxes , including a carbon tax and equity financing could contribute to financing gaps . Nonetheless , the proposed transition scenario represents in our view a reasonable midrange estimate to support our discussion .

Cost of transition could push leverage up another 7 %. In our scenario , absolute debt could grow to US $ 373 trillion between 2023 and 2030 , 11 % more than the baseline US $ 336 trillion . This translates to the global debt-to-GDP ratio rising to 254 %, 7 % more than the baseline 238 % ( see chart ). Because the weight of physical risk falls disproportionately on low- and low-middle-income countries we see the absolute debt and , consequently , the debt-to-GDP leverage rising faster for emerging markets than for mature markets ( see charts below ). The lower-income cohort of our emerging markets sample ( classified as lower-middle-income economies by the World Bank ) could fare even worse ; they may see absolute debt increase 19 % and debt-to-GDP jump 14 % in the transition scenario compared with the baseline . �

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